Tuesday, June 06, 2006
Live Blogging Super Tuesday '06
7:37 PM 6/7/06
Surely you've already heard the bad CA-50 news:
Bilbray 49%
Busby 45%
The worse news is that the coverage of it has for the most part switched from "win or lose, that the Dems forced a fight means big things for them in November" to "loss shows GOP candidates can distance themselves from Bush and be OK in November."
AdNags of the NYT has the only favorable write up I've seen:
The other news from the Golden State is that Phil Angelides will face Governor Schwarzenegger in November after defeating Steve Westly 48-43.
12:37 PM 6/7/06
Time for some sleep, with any luck I will wake up in a few hours and find some results our of CA-50.
12:25 AM 6/7/06
With those bold calls out of the way, only the California races remain. There are tens of Congressional primaries that I simply can't follow all of, but let's check the Gubernatorial one.
Phil Angelides is up 3.5% on Steve Westly with 7% in.
Still nothing new from San Diego.
12:17 AM 6/7/06
The AP knows better than I, but who cares! I am calling the Montana Senatorial Primary for Jon Tester and the Iowa Gubernatorial Primary for Chet Culver.
12:09 AM 6/7/06
The absentee results are still all we have from CA-50, so let's talk about them.
NRCC said Bilbray would take 52% of them and hold a 10,000 vote lead. As it turns out he got 50% and a 3,000 vote lead. It is pretty hard to spin a 7% deficit into good news, but with Griffith taking almost 5% Busby is certainly still in this thing.
It's pretty hard to play the expectations game after the polls are closed, but this race is all about coverage anyway, and the east coast paper's will surely go to bed before there are any real answers. So, hopefully the NRCC's call will at least cause the headline writers to give Busby a decent shot.
12:01 AM 6/7/06
AP has picked up the original report from CA-50, but that's it so far. $7M spent on a special election but no damn exit polls. Mumble grumble.
11:55 PM 6/6/06
With over 70% returns in Iowa, Culver still holds a 3% lead and now 70% of Boulin's 1st District are in. No call yet from the AP, though.
10:45 PM 6/6/06
In other news, SD-Gov. has been called for Jack Billion and MS-2 for Bennie Thompson.
11:32 PM 6/6/06
Chet Culver's lead has narrowed in Iowa. He now leads Mike Boulin by about 2% with about half reporting.
11:25 PM 6/6/06
10% in, Tester still up very big 33% to 64%. Very good news, indeed.
11:18 PM 6/6/06
The news has been slow out of CA-50, so let's head out to Montana.
With only 4.61% reporting, Jon Tester is out to a nearly 30% lead over John Morrison. Hopefuly Tester's lead can hold up, but I can't imagine it will remain anywhere near that size. Though, Swing State Project reports much of those reporting are from areas predicted to be leaning Morrison.
11:11 PM 6/6/06
Back to IA-Gov. for a minute. It's looking more like a two horse race with Fallon sliding and a third of the results in. Boulin is down 3.5% but about 90% of his geographic base has yet to come in.
11:04 PM 6/6/06
Unofficial results have 11% of precincts giving Bilbray a 7% lead in CA-50 absentee ballots.
10:56 PM 6/6/06
With about 25% reporting the IA-Gov. results are starting to reflect the predictions. The order is now Culver, Boulin, Fallon though all are within 5%.
10:50 PM 6/6/06
The countdown in on for the CA polls. The NRCC says they will take 52% of the absentee votes to be announced in a few minutes. Presumably this is based on the registration of those ballots. We will know officially in a few minutes.
10:40 PM 6/6/06
If the early returns are any indication, IA-Gov. may be a scorcher:
15.83% of Precincts
Ed Fallon - 33.91%
Chet Culver - 33.47%
Mike Boulin - 31.77%
Without any specific knowledge of the situation, I will say this: Larger city returns often come first, and larger cities often house progressives, so Ed Fallon might be benefiting from a biased sample.
10:19 PM 6/6/06
Both sides of the AL-Gov. Primary are off the TCTC wagon. Lucy Baxley is building a large lead with 20% reporting. The Swing State Project tells me this is good news, and I'm not one to question.
10:15 PM 6/6/06
With about 2/3 precincts reporting, it looks like Albio Siles will take the NJ-13 Primary (and with considerably more ease, the Special Primary).
10:00 PM 6/6/06
The polls are now closed in Montana and Iowa, leaving only California, so let's go into a little more detail on the second most interesting race of the night: MT-Sen.
Come November this will be a must win seat if we are going to take back the Senate. Conrad Burns is a poster-boy for the culture-of-corruption message. Tonight we will find out who we will put our hopes behind.
The original frontrunner was insider and state Auditor John Morrison. This race, though, has been dominated by electablility and Morrison has run into problems with accusations of adultry and related sleeziness. That has opened the door for the progressive candidate, Jon Tester.
Fortunately, both are out-polling Burns, so a progressive victory would likely be a good thing.
9:51 PM 6/6/06
The polls in Iowa close in a few minutes and the Dem. Gub. Pri. may be a three way race. Secretary of State Chet Culver is the front runner, despite Fmr. Rep. Mike Blouin healthy stack of endorsements, and State Senator Ed Fallon brings up the Progressive-candidate rear. Of course, to those of us not from Iowa, this race matters more in how it effects the 2008 Dems. I would love to tell you if your favorite Presidential candidate is a buddy of any of these three, but unfortunatly I don't know. It may not matter much, though, as the Republican Jim Nussle is convieniently unopposed in the primary may make the Dem nominee meaningless come Caucus '08.
9:28 PM 6/6/06
Turns out that Roy Moore's prediction of victory held very little weight, so I (along with everyone who actually knows anything) am moving it out of the TCTC column. Bob Riley has nearly 70% of the early returns in his favor, and he should roll to a primary victory. His opponant is still TCTC though.
9:21 PM 6/6/06
Polls are closed in New Mexico and South Dakota and have 40 minutes to go in Iowa and Montana.
9:18 PM 6/6/06
No results worth posting from Alabama, yet. But both sides of the Gubernatorial primary are interesting. The Democrats are Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley and Fmr. Gov. Don Siegelman are in what I'm now going to call a TCTC race (doesn't anyone have damn polling in this country?). The GOP side is TCTC too, which is especially interesting because it includes incumbant Gov. Bob Riley against Roy Moore, a judge famous for wanting the Ten Commandments in his courthouse.
9:08 PM 6/6/06
An interesting prediction from Jeff Greenfield on The Situation Room today. He says that the current political landscape looks to him like a mirror of that around the civil rights era. Then, as Democrats embraced the civil rights movement, many Southern Democrats decided they were really Republicans. Greenfield's logic wasn't entirely clear, but as the GOP panics and embraces its most conservative members, many moderates will realize they are really closer to the Dems and will be more electable that way too. Interesting (though not related to Super Tuesday).
8:44 PM 6/6/06
Very little in the way of early results, so let's get back to previews.
Perhaps the most nationally interesting of the primaries is the California Democration Gubernatorial one, the race to take on Arnold. Phil Angelides takes on Steve Westly in another "too close to call" race, both my money and my hopes are on Angelides. Despite being the Democratic insider, Angelides gets my vote because he had the gall to back a tax increase. Nice to see a Democrat show some real courage, as opposed to the Murtha-style base-pleasing courage.
8:31 PM 6/6/06
The polls are closed in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Jersey, let's see what we can find out.
6:46 PM 6/6/06
A quick rundown of the primary's before I run to a strategy session:
They take place in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
The race to watch is the Montana Senate Primary for the right to take on--and have a solid chance at defeating--unpopular Republican Conrad Burns.
Be back for a little more background and lot more analysis (OK OK, repetition of other people's analysis) in a little while.
6:39 PM 6/6/06
Let us start with the two special elections, one appearing to be important and interesting, and one appearing to be neither.
1. CA-50
The resignation of Randy "Duke" Cunningham from this, to quote Donna Brazile, "ruby red" congressional district, has spawned quite a race for the right to represent the district for a few months. Democrat and school board member Francine Busby and Republican former congressman Brian Bilbray are "too close to call" going into election day.
This district voted for Bush by 11 points, so most observers have already given this race to the Blue team, just for forcing the GOP to spead $5M. Pending a surprising result in either direction, tomorrow's story's are all ready written: CA-50 foreshadows big Dem victories in November.
As for what the result will be: The Busby camp feels their support tops out around 45%, so they appear to have pinned their hopes on independant immigrant hater William Griffith taking Bilbray's votes. They have even gone so far as to ads that are very complimentary of him. However, Lou Dobbs tells me that the Minutemen, who had endorsed Griffith, have now thrown their votes behind Bilbray. While this may be enough give Bilbray the most votes, the Democrats are clearly the real winners here.
First returns will come in at 11 PM, but stay close, as news from San Diego will be tonights focus.
2. NJ-13
Democrat Albio Sires should take the special primary to fill this seat for two months, but the real battle is the primary to win a full term. In that race Sires takes on Joe Vas. Either way, Dems shouldn't have to break a sweet here in November.
6:04 PM 6/6/06
Super Tuesday? Are you sure?
Super Tuesday! Do I get to vote!
A new post!? Have I been drinking?
Answers to all those questions and more as we proceed on this first ever NU Dems live blog. Stay tuned!
Surely you've already heard the bad CA-50 news:
Bilbray 49%
Busby 45%
The worse news is that the coverage of it has for the most part switched from "win or lose, that the Dems forced a fight means big things for them in November" to "loss shows GOP candidates can distance themselves from Bush and be OK in November."
AdNags of the NYT has the only favorable write up I've seen:
The other news from the Golden State is that Phil Angelides will face Governor Schwarzenegger in November after defeating Steve Westly 48-43.
12:37 PM 6/7/06
Time for some sleep, with any luck I will wake up in a few hours and find some results our of CA-50.
12:25 AM 6/7/06
With those bold calls out of the way, only the California races remain. There are tens of Congressional primaries that I simply can't follow all of, but let's check the Gubernatorial one.
Phil Angelides is up 3.5% on Steve Westly with 7% in.
Still nothing new from San Diego.
12:17 AM 6/7/06
The AP knows better than I, but who cares! I am calling the Montana Senatorial Primary for Jon Tester and the Iowa Gubernatorial Primary for Chet Culver.
12:09 AM 6/7/06
The absentee results are still all we have from CA-50, so let's talk about them.
NRCC said Bilbray would take 52% of them and hold a 10,000 vote lead. As it turns out he got 50% and a 3,000 vote lead. It is pretty hard to spin a 7% deficit into good news, but with Griffith taking almost 5% Busby is certainly still in this thing.
It's pretty hard to play the expectations game after the polls are closed, but this race is all about coverage anyway, and the east coast paper's will surely go to bed before there are any real answers. So, hopefully the NRCC's call will at least cause the headline writers to give Busby a decent shot.
12:01 AM 6/7/06
AP has picked up the original report from CA-50, but that's it so far. $7M spent on a special election but no damn exit polls. Mumble grumble.
11:55 PM 6/6/06
With over 70% returns in Iowa, Culver still holds a 3% lead and now 70% of Boulin's 1st District are in. No call yet from the AP, though.
10:45 PM 6/6/06
In other news, SD-Gov. has been called for Jack Billion and MS-2 for Bennie Thompson.
11:32 PM 6/6/06
Chet Culver's lead has narrowed in Iowa. He now leads Mike Boulin by about 2% with about half reporting.
11:25 PM 6/6/06
10% in, Tester still up very big 33% to 64%. Very good news, indeed.
11:18 PM 6/6/06
The news has been slow out of CA-50, so let's head out to Montana.
With only 4.61% reporting, Jon Tester is out to a nearly 30% lead over John Morrison. Hopefuly Tester's lead can hold up, but I can't imagine it will remain anywhere near that size. Though, Swing State Project reports much of those reporting are from areas predicted to be leaning Morrison.
11:11 PM 6/6/06
Back to IA-Gov. for a minute. It's looking more like a two horse race with Fallon sliding and a third of the results in. Boulin is down 3.5% but about 90% of his geographic base has yet to come in.
11:04 PM 6/6/06
Unofficial results have 11% of precincts giving Bilbray a 7% lead in CA-50 absentee ballots.
10:56 PM 6/6/06
With about 25% reporting the IA-Gov. results are starting to reflect the predictions. The order is now Culver, Boulin, Fallon though all are within 5%.
10:50 PM 6/6/06
The countdown in on for the CA polls. The NRCC says they will take 52% of the absentee votes to be announced in a few minutes. Presumably this is based on the registration of those ballots. We will know officially in a few minutes.
10:40 PM 6/6/06
If the early returns are any indication, IA-Gov. may be a scorcher:
15.83% of Precincts
Ed Fallon - 33.91%
Chet Culver - 33.47%
Mike Boulin - 31.77%
Without any specific knowledge of the situation, I will say this: Larger city returns often come first, and larger cities often house progressives, so Ed Fallon might be benefiting from a biased sample.
10:19 PM 6/6/06
Both sides of the AL-Gov. Primary are off the TCTC wagon. Lucy Baxley is building a large lead with 20% reporting. The Swing State Project tells me this is good news, and I'm not one to question.
10:15 PM 6/6/06
With about 2/3 precincts reporting, it looks like Albio Siles will take the NJ-13 Primary (and with considerably more ease, the Special Primary).
10:00 PM 6/6/06
The polls are now closed in Montana and Iowa, leaving only California, so let's go into a little more detail on the second most interesting race of the night: MT-Sen.
Come November this will be a must win seat if we are going to take back the Senate. Conrad Burns is a poster-boy for the culture-of-corruption message. Tonight we will find out who we will put our hopes behind.
The original frontrunner was insider and state Auditor John Morrison. This race, though, has been dominated by electablility and Morrison has run into problems with accusations of adultry and related sleeziness. That has opened the door for the progressive candidate, Jon Tester.
Fortunately, both are out-polling Burns, so a progressive victory would likely be a good thing.
9:51 PM 6/6/06
The polls in Iowa close in a few minutes and the Dem. Gub. Pri. may be a three way race. Secretary of State Chet Culver is the front runner, despite Fmr. Rep. Mike Blouin healthy stack of endorsements, and State Senator Ed Fallon brings up the Progressive-candidate rear. Of course, to those of us not from Iowa, this race matters more in how it effects the 2008 Dems. I would love to tell you if your favorite Presidential candidate is a buddy of any of these three, but unfortunatly I don't know. It may not matter much, though, as the Republican Jim Nussle is convieniently unopposed in the primary may make the Dem nominee meaningless come Caucus '08.
9:28 PM 6/6/06
Turns out that Roy Moore's prediction of victory held very little weight, so I (along with everyone who actually knows anything) am moving it out of the TCTC column. Bob Riley has nearly 70% of the early returns in his favor, and he should roll to a primary victory. His opponant is still TCTC though.
9:21 PM 6/6/06
Polls are closed in New Mexico and South Dakota and have 40 minutes to go in Iowa and Montana.
9:18 PM 6/6/06
No results worth posting from Alabama, yet. But both sides of the Gubernatorial primary are interesting. The Democrats are Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley and Fmr. Gov. Don Siegelman are in what I'm now going to call a TCTC race (doesn't anyone have damn polling in this country?). The GOP side is TCTC too, which is especially interesting because it includes incumbant Gov. Bob Riley against Roy Moore, a judge famous for wanting the Ten Commandments in his courthouse.
9:08 PM 6/6/06
An interesting prediction from Jeff Greenfield on The Situation Room today. He says that the current political landscape looks to him like a mirror of that around the civil rights era. Then, as Democrats embraced the civil rights movement, many Southern Democrats decided they were really Republicans. Greenfield's logic wasn't entirely clear, but as the GOP panics and embraces its most conservative members, many moderates will realize they are really closer to the Dems and will be more electable that way too. Interesting (though not related to Super Tuesday).
8:44 PM 6/6/06
Very little in the way of early results, so let's get back to previews.
Perhaps the most nationally interesting of the primaries is the California Democration Gubernatorial one, the race to take on Arnold. Phil Angelides takes on Steve Westly in another "too close to call" race, both my money and my hopes are on Angelides. Despite being the Democratic insider, Angelides gets my vote because he had the gall to back a tax increase. Nice to see a Democrat show some real courage, as opposed to the Murtha-style base-pleasing courage.
8:31 PM 6/6/06
The polls are closed in Alabama, Mississippi, and New Jersey, let's see what we can find out.
6:46 PM 6/6/06
A quick rundown of the primary's before I run to a strategy session:
They take place in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
The race to watch is the Montana Senate Primary for the right to take on--and have a solid chance at defeating--unpopular Republican Conrad Burns.
Be back for a little more background and lot more analysis (OK OK, repetition of other people's analysis) in a little while.
6:39 PM 6/6/06
Let us start with the two special elections, one appearing to be important and interesting, and one appearing to be neither.
1. CA-50
The resignation of Randy "Duke" Cunningham from this, to quote Donna Brazile, "ruby red" congressional district, has spawned quite a race for the right to represent the district for a few months. Democrat and school board member Francine Busby and Republican former congressman Brian Bilbray are "too close to call" going into election day.
This district voted for Bush by 11 points, so most observers have already given this race to the Blue team, just for forcing the GOP to spead $5M. Pending a surprising result in either direction, tomorrow's story's are all ready written: CA-50 foreshadows big Dem victories in November.
As for what the result will be: The Busby camp feels their support tops out around 45%, so they appear to have pinned their hopes on independant immigrant hater William Griffith taking Bilbray's votes. They have even gone so far as to ads that are very complimentary of him. However, Lou Dobbs tells me that the Minutemen, who had endorsed Griffith, have now thrown their votes behind Bilbray. While this may be enough give Bilbray the most votes, the Democrats are clearly the real winners here.
First returns will come in at 11 PM, but stay close, as news from San Diego will be tonights focus.
2. NJ-13
Democrat Albio Sires should take the special primary to fill this seat for two months, but the real battle is the primary to win a full term. In that race Sires takes on Joe Vas. Either way, Dems shouldn't have to break a sweet here in November.
6:04 PM 6/6/06
Super Tuesday? Are you sure?
Super Tuesday! Do I get to vote!
A new post!? Have I been drinking?
Answers to all those questions and more as we proceed on this first ever NU Dems live blog. Stay tuned!
